Getting in his mind is a thankless task - but we should try, writes the BBC's Steve Rosenberg.
Let me get the disclaimer in early. I have no Kremlin crystal ball. Neither do I have Putin on direct dial.
There's little doubt that the Russian president is under pressure. His so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine has gone badly wrong for him.The Kremlin admits "significant" troop losses; in recent weeks the Russian military has been losing territory in Ukraine which it had previously occupied.
"He is the authoritarian leader of a nuclear power. He's the unchallenged leader in this country. He has some strong beliefs and perceptions which drive him crazy. He's started to believe that this is existential from the point of view of importance. Not only for him. But for the future of Russia."In recent months senior Russian officials have been dropping unsubtle hints that the Kremlin leader would be prepared to use nuclear weapons in this conflict.
But "endless war" requires endless resources. That's something Russia doesn't seem to have. The wave of missile strikes on Ukrainian cities is a dramatic demonstration of force, but how long can Moscow sustain that? What's he thinking now? Is Vladimir Putin's current plan to cement control over Ukrainian territory he claims to have annexed and then freeze the conflict? Or is he determined to push on until the whole of Ukraine is back in the Kremlin's sphere of influence?
"For many years the main slogan was 'predictability'. What kind of predictability is there today? The concept is over. Nothing is predictable. My journalists don't know whether they will receive call-up papers when they get home today.""I think that [Putin] had been moving in that direction - year by year he was constructing the way to what we have now," Mr Yavlinsky says.
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