Russia hasn’t gained more than 1,000 square miles in a week since April. See how Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine has changed throughout the war through an annotated data timeline with maps showing the change.
As of Nov. 17, Russia controlled some 40,000 square miles in Ukraine, mainly in the east and south. That’s about 17 percent of the country, the lowest percentage controlled by Moscow since April.Analysts say Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy is aimed at exhausting and outlasting Ukrainian troops, with the aim of decreasing allies’ confidence in Ukraine’s capabilities, all the while strengthening and training new forces.
“The Russian forces might be able to take some territory around Donetsk, but I certainly don’t think they are going to achieve any decisive breakthroughs, which they haven’t for months and months in the war,” Clark said.Despite Ukraine’s victory in Kherson, reclaiming the east will be a difficult and phased task. “It’s going to require several counteroffensives more to actually retake more Russian-occupied territory,” Clark said.
While momentum seems to be on Ukraine’s side, the shape the war will take in the coming months still hangs in the balance. To Bergmann, the main question is whether Ukraine will be able to keep advancing in the weeks before the winter, when the rain and mud usually make military movements more difficult.
“There’s a lot still to play for in this conflict and it’s very uncertain which direction it will go,” he said.Editing by Emily Eng, Tim Meko, Kate Rabinowitz and Reem Akkad. Copy editing by Vanessa Larson.
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