Who knows what else might happen?
projecting weak growth across the world in 2023. It placed particular emphasis on three issues: high inflation and central bank tightening, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the continued effects of Covid—especially in China.HBR asked three experts about what to expect for the economy in 2023, and how things have evolved since October.Mihir Desai is a professor of finance at Harvard Business School.
Said another way: Getting to 4-5% inflation will happen by May 2023, but getting back to 2%-3% inflation will take longer and be more painful, triggering a sustained debate regarding the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve.Inflation is very high no matter how you cut it. I would put the underlying trend in the United States at around 5%, which is way above the Fed’s target and the highest level in four decades.
Consumers are facing higher prices, higher interest rates, declining savings rates, more borrowing, and lower wealth levels. For now, consumer spending has held up. As the economy slows, we could be facing a longer consumer-driven recession rather than just significant declines in investment and associated losses in employment. These declines in labor demand will likely center on white-collar workers.
The possibility that companies seeking external financing will struggle with financing options and trigger financial distress and bankruptcies at a high rate.Karen Dynan:
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