Here, military personnel, Nato staff and others are facing off in a simulation. The winners? Those who stop the world plunging into catastrophe. The losers? Us, if they get it wrong
ush House in London is a narrow, imposing building that was constructed about a century ago from rugged limestone, which helped it survive a nearby missile strike during the second world war. It’s the sort of place you might choose to take shelter at the outset of a third world war and, fittingly, it is where dozens of Nato employees, as well as representatives of various global militaries, have gathered on a sunny summer afternoon to simulate the end of everything.
The four look at each other as if to say: a dictator, ridiculous! Of course, they decide to collaborate. There’s a physicist from California who has a long beard and an even longer braided ponytail. I’ll call him Tim. He sits next to a spectacled, serious-minded European who in the real world works for Nato’s operations department. I’ll call him Matteo. Across the table there’s a mild-mannered lecturer from Hungary who wears a purple sweater. I’ll call him Zlatan.
Purple-jumpered lecturer Zlatan seems a sweetheart. After Tim has spoken he suggests something less belligerent – maybe a few extra passes over Finland in a spy plane? Matteo, already emerging as a first-do-no-harm type, adjusts his spectacles and wonders whether even this level of aggression is too much. Maybe a bit of email phishing in the region? The suited analyst, Amy, sides with Tim. “I’m thinking we escalate early. We provoke them. It’s what the real Russia would do.
“War-gaming is about preparing for the future,” Catherine says. “How do you make the best of a bad set of options? How do you navigate a space that isn’t black and white, where the view of the decision-maker is blurred?” Catherine has worked in fields related to war-gaming for some time and, along with Banks, she helped me understand some of its history.
According to Banks, analogue, in-person war-gaming fell away as a prominent military tool in the 1950s and 60s because of the rise of computers. Ever since, it has come in and out of fashion, Catherine explains, depending on the particular circumstances of an era: “Right now it’s the flavour of the day, because the problems of the allied nations are not black and white.” There’s counterinsurgency abroad. “Hybrid activities between near-peer competitors.” Almost-wars.
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