Last week Russian president Vladimir Putin issued a veiled threat to use nuclear weapons as he formally annexed parts of Ukraine. What destruction would they cause, and how would the West respond?
Supposing he could, and would, use a tactical nuke, the urgent question right now is whether Moscow’s first-use doctrine is aggressive, or only defensive.
But there is another potential path to a nuclear strike, too. What if Putin’s nuclear doctrine isn’t just defensive – what if he is thinking of using a nuclear weapon to help him win this war? A strictly military strike would be aimed at taking out a military base, encampment, bunker or troop position, or destroying a large piece of military infrastructure.
Donald Trump’s defence secretary, James Mattis, told Congress in 2018 that a nuclear weapon is a nuclear weapon, regardless of whether it is tactical or strategic. “I do not think there is any such thing as a tactical nuclear weapon. Any nuclear weapon used any time is a strategic game-changer,” he said.
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