Many people who retired early as covid-19 struck have not come back to work
economists have warned of recession in America, but in one crucial area the economy seems overheated: employers are stillremains robust
for now. Total labour supply is roughly back to pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, labour demand has increased by 3m positions. The excess demand represents about 3% of all those employed, which has contributed to big nominal wage gains. SlowerThe supply picture is more complex. During the pandemic, many workers took time off. Immigration, a key source of labour,
. Now, however, the labour-force participation rate of prime-age workers and the foreign-born workforce have almost fully recovered. Neither explains the current squeeze. Instead, the biggest shortfall comes from Americans getting older and leaving work behind. Since 2019 those aged at least 65 have gone from less than 16% of the population to nearly 17%. Moreover, unlike prime-age workers, many people who retired early as covid-19 struck have not come back to work.among older Americans, which rose from 12.5% in 2000 to 20.7% in early 2020, has dipped to 19.3%, the same as in 2016. The ageing of the population accounts for the loss of 1.
Little by little, Americans will get back to better health. Unfortunately for employers, baby-boomers are unlikely to come out of retirement.Sources: BLS; “Where are the workers? From great resignation to quiet quitting”, by D. Lee, J Park and Y.Shin, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2023, working paper
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