Keep an eye on Taiwan and the South China Sea—and the Himalayas WorldAhead
By Dominic Ziegler: Banyan columnist, The Economist, Singaporedebate about whether a new cold war is playing out in Asia is beside the point. In 2023 rising tensions will underscore how for all the optimism in the early 1990s that the world was bending towards the West’s notions of an open, rules-based order, the original cold war never ended in the region.
As Chinese power has grown, so has its bellicosity towards Taiwan. President Joe Biden has stated several times that America would defend Taiwan if it were attacked. This change from a long-standing policy of keeping China guessing about America’s intentions worries some in Washington, who fear it might provoke China to act sooner rather than later.
Another cold-war hangover is North Korea, a family-run nuclear thuggocracy protected by China. In 2022 its leader, Kim Jong Un, asserted the right to conduct a pre-emptive nuclear strike should North Korea feel threatened with attack. Before the end of 2023, and possibly much sooner, he will provoke condemnation by exploding a nuclear device, the state’s seventh test and the first since 2017. The device will be smaller than previous ones.
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