OPINION: Decoupling was considered the path to stabilising superpower competition. But in a less integrated global economy, each side may be more willing to countenance a military clash.
, Beijing and its proxies have promised a thunderous response, one that befits the House Speaker’s stature in Washington as third in line to the US presidency.usually conjure the prospect of a military response. The worst-case scenario in the current stand-off is Chinese fighter jets preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taipei.
But the focus on war saps attention from the economic fallout from a conflict over Taiwan, which would arguably be far greater and which would be felt in almost every corner of the globe.China and the US and their allies and partners have long been trying to mitigate the economic impact of a conflict through the process known by the buzzword of decoupling.
In Washington, this policy goes by the shorthand of building “a small garden with high walls”. In other words, putting prohibitively tight barriers around a limited supply of strategic goods to protect national security.In turn, the notion of “small d” decoupling dovetails with the other favoured backstop to contain superpower tensions, “managed competition”, in which the US and China negotiate strategic off-ramps and guardrails to prevent a slide into war.
The interruption of chips from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, which alone makes about half the world’s semiconductors, would bring the manufacture of everything from the iPhone to other electronics to a rapid halt.
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