Why Iran attacked Israel – and what open war between the two could look like

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Why Iran attacked Israel – and what open war between the two could look like
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Iran had vowed revenge since an April 1 airstrike in Syria killed two Iranian generals inside an Iranian consular building.

Iran accused Israel of being behind the attack. Israel hasn’t commented on it.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah speaks in a televised address during a ceremony to commemorate the death of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and six officers, who were killed by an Israeli airstrike in Syria.Among those killed by the airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus was General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a top general in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

A cleric chants slogans during an anti-Israeli gathering in front of the British Embassy in Tehran, Iran.“Tehran’s missile force is increasingly augmented by Iran’s UAVs and serves as the regime’s primary conventional deterrent against attacks on its personnel and territory,” the agency said. It added that Iran has a “substantial inventory” of ballistic and cruise missiles capable of striking targets 2000 kilometres away – putting Israel well within range.

A more remote possibility remains: Iran could also direct proxies to deploy militants on the ground from Syria or Lebanon. The one precedent for Iran attacking Israeli territory came in 2018, when Tehran fired rockets from Syria on positions in the Golan Heights. Israel would counter ballistic missiles with its Arrow interceptors and drone attacks, possibly with David’s Sling air defence systems and perhaps with a system called Drone Guard made by ELTA Systems.Iran’s most important allies are the Shiite militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, which it supports with money, weapons and training. The Lebanese militia Hezbollah would be positioned to play the most significant role.

Iran has good relations with Russia, though its war in Ukraine would likely limit its ability to help, and with China, which has bought Iranian oil, though it remains sanctioned by the US and allies.

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