Political analysts have been predicting that Russia could invade eastern Ukraine for a while.
In December, Russia demanded legal assurances that Ukraine would never be admitted to NATO but these demands were refused. Analysts have said Putin knew the demands would be rejected but was then able to say Russia's security concerns had been ignored, selling this to the Russian public via the media, most of which is pro-Putin because it is either state controlled or has links to the government.
"I don't get what Putin gets from recognising LPR and DPR. He gets to bear the cost of supporting 3.5 million generally poor people. He gets the sanctions impact. He pulls out of Minsk 2, so gives up his plan for a Federal solution for Ukraine as a means to stop its Western move. And he is internationally seen as a bad guy stealing territory from other countries."
Mario Bikarski, Russia analyst for the Economist Intelligence Unit, commented that Russia's recent actions were "designed to apply maximum pressure on Ukraine, get the attention of the West, open the door to talks and try to force a settlement preventing Ukraine from joining NATO."
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