Bitcoin tends to move independently of other assets, making it an excellent potential source of diversification
The theory posits that a rational investor should maximise his or her returns relative to the risk they are taking. It follows, naturally, that assets with high and dependable returns should feature heavily in a sensible portfolio. But Mr Markowitz’s genius was in showing that diversification can reduce volatility without sacrificing returns. Diversification is the financial version of the idiom “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
Consider the mix of assets a sensible investor might hold: geographically diverse stock indexes; bonds; a listed real-estate fund; and perhaps a precious metal, like gold. The assets that yield the juiciest returns—stocks and real estate—also tend to move in the same direction at the same time. The correlation between stocks and bonds is weak , yielding the potential to diversify, but bonds have also tended to lag behind when it comes to returns.
This might explain its appeal to some big investors. Paul Tudor Jones, a hedge-fund manager, has said he aims to hold about 5% of his portfolio in bitcoin. This allocation looks sensible as part of a highly diversified portfolio. Across the four time periods during the past decade that Buttonwood randomly selected to test, an optimal portfolio contained a bitcoin allocation of 1-5%.
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