Why Poland may have most to gain from a Russian defeat in Ukraine

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Why Poland may have most to gain from a Russian defeat in Ukraine
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Western democracies want Ukraine to win – but are they all happy for Europe’s centre of gravity to migrate eastward?

Photograph: Agnieszka Pazdykiewicz/Sopa Images/Rex/ShutterstockPhotograph: Agnieszka Pazdykiewicz/Sopa Images/Rex/Shutterstockf the outcome of the war could be determined by the toss of a coin, the camps would be clear: democracies would wantto win, autocracies would want it to lose. But real-world political outcomes are not so binary. They typically fall on a spectrum between annihilation and total victory.

Ukraine’s success would also entail a historic chance for the region to exit the status of the periphery and become a counterbalance to the EU’s big western member states. Victory in Ukraine would probably spill over into regime change in Belarus – the second missing piece in the historic project of the, or a buffer of allied countries stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea to counterbalance Russia’s power.

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