.benwallacewells speaks to Republican pollsters and consultants about their predictions for Tuesday’s election. “The word that kept coming up in these conversations was ‘bloodbath.’ ”
, in Texas, and Kari Lake, in Arizona, have similarly emphasized this contrast—between the sunny G.O.P.-managed economy at home and the darkening, inflation-related clouds emanating from Joe Biden’s Washington. If voters felt economically stressed, Kemp said during his final debate, “the problem is, [wages are] not going up fast enough to keep up with Joe Biden’s inflation.”stars has come from growing Southern states.
Even if Democrats had wanted to make their own pivot to economic issues, their window to do so, by the early fall, was closing. The inflation index in September was much worse than it had been during the preceding months, and quite quickly it was difficult for Democrats to find much to brag about economically. By October, the basic daily experience of the race, for the Republican consultants I spoke with, had changed. “Post-Dobbs, Republicans stopped taking polls,” a Republican pollster told me.
Back in the summer, I’d spoken with the Republican strategist, who then predicted that the Dobbs wave would be ephemeral. “The Republican base is asking for very, very little,” he told me this week.
Democrats were eager this week to point out how many seats the party in control of the White House typically loses in a midterm election—Barack Obama, the greatest politician the Party has produced in a generation, lost sixty-three seats in the House of Representatives in his first midterm. But many of the Republicans I spoke with saw this year as distinct. The pollster in Pennsylvania said that in 2010, “Obama got punished for overreach. That’s not this. This is incompetence.
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