Opinion polls work like a pendulum in a grandfather clock (sort of). A midsummer “tick” in the Democrats’ favour has duly been answered by a Republican “tock” this autumn
, the state’s Democratic lieutenant-governor, is facing Mehmet Oz, a former doctor and talk-show host. Our poll of polls, which adjusts surveys both for the historical bias of each pollster and for whether a poll was conducted by a partisan firm, finds that the Democrats’ margin has also fallen by over five percentage points inOur polling averages currently show Democrats trailing Republicans by around one point each in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
But there is still time for Republicans to make inroads before November 8th, and polls in recent elections have been significantly biased towards Democrats. Republican candidates are in reach of every close seat, even Pennsylvania and Arizona, according to the range of errors in our historical averages of Senate polls. Though it would take a big polling miss, the recent gains the party has made in key states mean it would no longer be a shock for Republicans to win a Senate majority.
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