Everyone predicted that Russia would launch major cyber attacks as part of its invasion of Ukraine, but so far nothing. What's happening?
wiper programs attributed to Russia in recent weeks and shared that information with the U.S. government as well as other countries concerned about Russian cyberattacks. NotPetya was a form of wiper malware and its ability to delete data caused massive damage, so the discovery of new Russian wipers is certainly cause for concern.
It’s likely that the combined efforts of Microsoft, the U.S., and many other countries and companies to ramp up cyber defenses both in and outside of Ukraine has undoubtedly helped curb the damage caused by these efforts. But if Russia really had on hand a stockpile of previously undetected vulnerabilities and sophisticated malware designed to exploit them, these lines of defense simply would not be enough to prevent some significant damage and disruption.
Moreover, many of the early theories for why Russia might have voluntarily abstained from more serious cyberattacks look increasingly implausible as the conflict continues for an extended period. For instance, one explanation for why Russia left Ukrainian electricity distribution and communication networks intact was that Putin wanted the rest of the world to see Russia’s swift, decisive victory in Ukraine via a steady stream of images and videos that might have been hampered by such an attack.
, rather than trying to disrupt media and communications systems more effectively and less violently via cyber capabilities.Given Russia’s past willingness to deploy cyberattacks with far-reaching, devastating consequences, it would be a mistake to count out their cyber capabilities just because they have so far proven unimpressive. And it’s all but impossible to prove the absence of cyber weapons in a nation’s arsenal.
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