Many Americans believe the country is already in – or very close to – recession but that may actually not be the case.
| Inflation may well be the greatest fear for a central banker, but for the president of the United States, the worst thing is the “R” word – recession.
“All kidding aside – no, I don’t think it is [in recession]. I was talking to Larry Summers this morning. And there’s nothing inevitable about a recession,” he told reporters. Morgan Stanley US economist Julian Richers thinks there could be a technical recession but not a recession, as defined by the NBER.“The latest trade data this week has moved our second-quarter GDP tracking down to 0.1 per cent, just a hair above, making it the second consecutive quarter of real GDP contraction. If second-quarter GDP ends up being negative, this would fulfil the definition of a ‘technical recession’,” Richers says.
“While there has been a little over a 40 per cent increase in initial jobless claims from the March 2022 low, continuing claims remain near historical lows and roughly 500,000 below pre-COVID levels,” Ryan says. “While real GDP is on track to contract for a second consecutive quarter, we will need to see a more meaningful rise in continuing claims to definitely declare that a recession is imminent.
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