Trafalgar Group founder RobertCahaly on what makes his polls different, why he’s not more transparent about his methods, and how he thinks the midterms will shake out. A conversation with realaxelfoley
, lots of pollsters say, “You know, here’s what we think is gonna happen, but here’s a big caveat at the top. We don’t really know.” But you lean into it.There’s been a lot of criticism about your methodology over the years, mostly around the fact that you don’t show your work as much as other pollsters do.Oh, we do that. We do often give out the cross tabs to certain members of the media.
These guys can all say what they want, but nobody says that I avoid talking to the media and that I’m in a hole somewhere, you know? I’ll talk to anybody because I think we’ve got a great story to tell, and they just hate it, and that’s okay. I think it’s funny they hate it., and you’ve worked for Republican officials in the past. You said partisanship wouldn’t affect your polls, but I’m wondering if you use it at all to get people to talk to you.
I think there’s a good chance there’s a red wave. The theory I’ve been putting forth is there are a lot of Republicans who are really, really hesitant to participate in polls. And this is different than in 2016, when they were kind of shy if they were voting for Trump. And it’s different than in ’20, where you just had to work a little harder to get to them. To find the majority of Republicans, you had to just dig deeper; you had to make a lot more calls.
So is there going to be a wave? I think yes. How big it is, I think the pollsters — including us — will have a hard time measuring it because these voters just literally aren’t reachable. But I just think this is different. Again, I’m giving you opinions of people that we have polled. In 2020, were there examples of pro-life activists having the FBI come to their house with guns and take people away? No. In 2020, were there examples of people who were willing to turn themselves in but had to go through an FBI-style raid on their homes? No. In 2020, did people think that the FBI was working with Facebook? No.
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