Crude oil prices and gasoline prices are significantly lower today than they were a month ago due to fears that the global economy is heading for a recession.
the highest reading since 1981, once again exceeding expectations and raising the odds the Fed will continue its aggressive rate-hike regime in a bid to tame spiraling prices.We think 100 bps will be on the table on July 27, but data on real economic activity in June that were released after we published our forecast make the case for a supersized rate hike less compelling.
Over the past couple of weeks, the oil price rally has cooled off considerably, with crude currently hovering at $100/bbl from recent highs of $120/bbl largely on fears of a global economic slowdown. The latest selloff has extended the energy sector's losing streak and plunged it into bear territory for the first time in months. It has also reversed a recent trend where the sector was outperforming all other 10 market sectors to a situation where it's underperforming virtually everything. The selloff has been so deep that prices have crashed all the way along the futures curve. For instance, Brent for December 2023 shed 8.
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