Unless it receives urgent help, Moldova faces a catastrophe from the influx of refugees from Ukraine
as she waits for the bus to Romania. She has just walked seven kilometres from Ukraine into Moldova and is trying to move on as quickly as she can. Hundreds of Ukrainians around her are making the same choice. “I can’t stay here,” she says. “Putin will destroy this country too.”or the European Union, is in a state of deep anxiety. Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th, some 260,000 Ukrainians have entered Moldova and around 101,000 of them are still there.
Victoria Rosa of the Foreign Policy Association of Moldova says that a Russian attempt at destabilisation is more likely than not. Western intelligence suggests that the threat is serious. “Russia will use whatever influence it has to ensure that Moldova has a pro-Russian government. They will go for regime change,” predicts a foreign diplomat.
If the Russians do manage to occupy Odessa, they might recognise or even annex Transnistria and significantly reinforce their forces there. Another scenario, much discussed in Chisinau, Moldova’s uneasy capital, involves Russia dictating a solution to the long-running Transnistrian conflict by threatening an invasion. In November Russia proposed a settlement, the details of which have been kept secret, in exchange for a big discount on the natural gas it sells to Moldova.
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