Both sides have been ratcheting up their attacks for months without crossing the line into a full-scale war. This attack, however, will likely lead to a major escalation.
The alleged Israeli attack on members of Hezbollah via their pagers is another ominous development propelling the Middle East towards a full-scale regional war. It leaves Hezbollah with little option but to retaliate with the full support of the Iran-led “axis of resistance”.
Since Hezbollah has reduced the use of mobile phones by its forces because Israel can easily detect and target them, pagers have increasingly become the preferred messaging device within the group. Hours before the pager attack, Netanyahu’s government clarified that Israel’s war goals would expand to include a return of the tens of thousands of residents to their homes in northern Israel, which they have fled due to constant rocket fire from Hezbollah. Israel’s defence minister, Yoav Gallant, said the only way to do this was through military action.
Hezbollah showed this capability in its 2006 war with Israel. The war lasted 34 days, during which 165 Israelis were killed and Israel’s economy and tourist industry were markedly damaged. Hezbollah and Lebanese losses were far greater, with at least 1,100 deaths. However, the Israel Defence Forces failed to destroy or incapacitate the group.
Hezbollah is a central piece in the regime’s national and regional security paradigm. Tehran has invested heavily in the group, along with other regional affiliates – Iraqi militias, the Yemeni Houthis and the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, in particular. The aim of this “axis of resistance” has been to build a strong deterrent against Israel and the US.
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