Five scenarios for the end of the war, from a Russian or Ukrainian breakthrough to a frozen conflict
. Currently, western intelligence estimates Russia is taking 1,000 casualties a day. There remains speculation that the Kremlin will seek a fresh mobilisation, and another worry is that Beijing may start covertly supplying Russia.Ukraine is assembling a force of more than 100 western Leopard 1 and 2 tanks, plus others, and a similar number of armoured vehicles that it hopes to use whenever the spring muddy season eases, to smash through Russia’s defensive lines in a D-day offensive.
The worry is that even this is overly optimistic, although it is the strategy that western leaders appears to be selling to their publics. “There is a real problem here in that we may be over-encouraged by Ukraine’s early successes in counterattacking last year,” said James Nixey, a Russia expert at the Chatham House thinktank.
So a more likely end point here is not a negotiated peace, but rather a conflict that consolidates around lines of control. “You end up with something between a frozen conflict and an everlasting war, in which neither side has the energy or economy to win,” Nixey said.
Australia Latest News, Australia Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Putin ‘lost’ the war a ‘long time ago’: Ukraine marks one year since war with RussiaFriday will mark the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine however Putin “lost the war a long, long time ago”, according to retired US army major and urban welfare expert John Spencer. “And Ukraine won and will win,” Mr Spencer told Sky News Australia. “It’s just a matter of how many Russian soldiers will die and the cost of Ukraine to achieve their goals which is to get Russia out of Ukraine. “It isn’t the weapons or the technology, it’s the will to fight in the soldiers and Ukraine has shown they’re going to fight until they win to achieve their freedom. “It’s your alliances that matter, and Ukraine has over 50 nations supporting its fight for its freedom and for human rights. “And Russia, you know they’re going to China, but China doesn’t back losers – Russia is alone in their illegal war in Ukraine.”
Read more »
‘It’s a disgrace not to go to war’: muted Russian protest against Ukraine conflictFamilies of dead Russian soldiers appear even more supportive of military operation
Read more »
Russian invasion ‘an affront’, says UN chief, as assembly meets on UkraineUN general assembly debates motion calling for unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine on anniversary of war
Read more »
China and Russia deepen ties as top diplomat tells Putin crisis is ‘opportunity’On eve of Ukraine invasion anniversary Russian leader says China relations ‘proceeding as planned’
Read more »
Australia pledges drones for Ukraine on first anniversary of Russian invasionUkraine's defence forces will be given access to Australian drone systems, with the federal government also unveiling a raft of new sanctions against people connected to Russia's invasion.
Read more »