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President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to a record low of 32 percent, and strategists warn Republicans face catastrophically bad midterm elections on November 3, with the Cook Political Report predicting Democrats gain five to 13 seats.
President Donald Trump's approval rating fell to a record low of 32 percent last week, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, as Republicans face what strategists describe as catastrophically bad prospects just four weeks before the November 3 midterm elections.
The poll showed Americans have soured on Trump on every key issue since he took office for a second term in January 2025. On immigration his net approval fell from plus 7 to minus 19. On foreign policy it dropped from plus 2 to minus 32. On the cost of living, which Americans say will most determine how they vote, his net approval slumped from minus 6 to minus 57.
Trump Iowa Steel Plant Announcement
This week Trump summoned reporters to the Oval Office to announce a US 15 billion dollar steel plant, or 22 billion Australian dollars, would be built in the midwestern state of Iowa. Among those standing around him was Ashley Hinson, the Republican Senate candidate for Iowa, who is locked in a toss-up race for the seat occupied by a retiring Republican.
It is a seat Republicans must hold if they are to cling on to control of the US Senate at the midterm elections in four weeks, which are increasingly shaping as a bloodbath for the GOP. Days earlier Hinson had called for an immediate and successful end to the war in Iran and urgent relief for families, farmers, seniors and small businesses struggling with the cost of petrol, diesel and everyday goods.
I know Iowans are frustrated and I am frustrated, she said. They were sick of people in Washington playing games, she added. But the people in charge of Washington are Republicans. They have spent two years flattering a president whose approval rating fell to a record low of 32 percent last week, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll.
If you are the party in the White House there are really three options for you on election day, Walter said at an event with the International Institute of Finance in Washington on Thursday. The election day is going to be bad, it is going to be really bad, or it is going to be catastrophically bad. You know that going in. Now we are into catastrophically bad territory.
The Cook Political Report is not predicting a landslide where 50 or 60 seats change hands. That is not realistic given the sharply divided nature of modern US politics, the GOP stranglehold on rural areas, and a highly gerrymandered electoral map. There are just so few competitive seats out there, Walter said. The Cook Political Report predicts Democrats will end up with a majority between five and 13 seats.
Could it go higher? Yes, said Walter. But there is a limit. It is more difficult for the Democrats to win the Senate, although pollster Nate Silver this week gave the party a 72 percent chance of flipping that chamber.
Key Senate Races Shape Midterm
The result will come down to a handful of races, particularly Texas, Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Iowa. All have their own quirks and caveats. In Maine, Democrat Graham Platner was forced to withdraw after a series of controversies including a rape allegation that he denies. His successor Troy Jackson is now taking on incumbent Republican Susan Collins, who has distanced herself from Trump on key issues.
In Alaska, former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola is challenging incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, and could benefit from another Republican candidate running whose name, coincidentally, is also Dan Sullivan. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed appears to have gained ground in Michigan, after the left-wing health administrator bested an establishment Democrat in the most expensive Senate primary ever. Silver now has Texas leaning towards the Democrats' James Talarico.
If he wins it would represent a harsh indictment on Republican candidate Ken Paxton, the state attorney-general, who defeated incumbent senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary thanks to Trump's endorsement. Leaked audio captured Paxton admitting that the Trump-heavy Republican convention in Dallas four weeks ago actually hurt the party. It dropped our numbers, he said in the recording. Everybody's numbers dropped.
The picture was not good at the moment, he added. There are signs Trump is nervous about areas that are supposed to be Republican strongholds. On Thursday he travelled to Denton, Texas, and Durant, Oklahoma, for campaign events, and on Friday he was due to hold a rally in Mobile, Alabama. He is planning to spend much of October on the road campaigning.
The Republican strategy is explicit: get loyal Trump voters to feel as though his name is on the ballot. They want to motivate the low-information, low-propensity voters who turned out for Trump in 2024 to show up again on November 3. It is a risky approach. Trump is still beloved by MAGA diehards but he is broadly unpopular.
Mobilising Trump loyalists to the polls could result in Republicans who have switched off Trump staying home. California-based Republican strategist Mike Madrid calls it a big mistake. That strategy is designed to mitigate further losses, Madrid said. They are not trying to even hold the line with independents; they know they have lost them.
The only reason you do that is if there is a complete bloodletting about to happen. Hence Trump's trip to deep red Oklahoma on Thursday. It is not just because the old man wants to see himself in front of a rally, said Madrid. It is because they have got to lock down some semblance of a base.
Trump Approval Low Among Hispanics
It is that bad. Trump boasts of his success with Hispanic voters, who were a key plank in his winning 2024 coalition. But the polling is dire with that cohort of voters too. An ActiVote poll released Thursday had Trump's approval rating among Hispanics at 15 percent.
Madrid, who specialises in Hispanic voting patterns, is not sure things are quite that bad but he says Latinos' shift to Trump in 2024 was a rejection of the Democrats, not an embrace of Trumpism. They were never in love with Trump or Republicans, ever. They were just really disgusted and pissed off at the Democrats, he said. It is the exact same scenario in reverse now, for the exact same reason.
It is the economy, overwhelmingly. People have just had it. Few metrics are better predictors of election swings than whether people feel the country is heading in the right direction. The poll found 61 percent thought the national economy was worse off since Trump took office, while 60 percent said the country as a whole was worse off.
Seven in 10 respondents said Trump had not made their lives better.
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theage:With a month to go, Republicans’ midterm prospects are ‘catastrophically bad’ 
brisbanetimes:With a month to go, Republicans’ midterm prospects are ‘catastrophically bad’This story was compiled and edited by the HeadTopics newsroom and HT AI from the reports above.
Republican Party Donald Trump Approval US Senate Races Cost Of Living Trump Approval Rating Senate Control Cook Political Report
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