A full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah would likely set the entire region on fire, involving Iran and its proxies, and could drag the US into direct confrontation with Tehran.
Israel ’s apparent assassinations of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah ’s top military leader, in Beirut, and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, have raised again the specter of a regional war involving regional adversaries – one that could potentially drag the United States into the fray.
In carrying through with the Beirut operation, Israel has pushed the limits of the “rules of the game” in its post-Oct. 7 war of attrition with Hezbollah. Until now, the Lebanese capital was targeted only once by Israel with the Jan. 2, 2024, assassination of Saleh Arouri, another Hamas leader, not far from where Shukr was killed.
Israel reportedly guaranteed Qatar, Haniyeh’s host country, that it would not target Hamas leaders within its borders. Israel also chose not to kill him during Haniyeh’s recent visit to Turkey, potentially out of concern of further alienating Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The last time Iran claimed its sovereignty was violated by Israel – during the April 1, 2024, attack on its embassy in Damascus – it responded by launching hundreds of missiles and attack drones against Israel.
And all of this is happening while, domestically, Israel is facing major challenges to its political system and the rule of law. The war in Gaza has brought to the fore forces within Israeli society that are openly seeking to change its political system and challenge both the command structure and combat culture of the military.
Hezbollah Iran Israel Israel Defense Forces Israeli-Palestinian War Lebanon Middle East Palestine Recep Tayyip Erdogan US-Iran
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