Volatility continues to be the biggest factor, so keep your position sizing reasonable and consistent. Trade oil here:
initially rallied on Tuesday but gave bank gains yet again as we continue to see plenty of volatility.
Oil is a bit of a mess right now because there are a lot of different crosscurrents affecting it. The first on is the fact that we spent so much time not drawing it during the pandemic, so it’s likely that we will see significant buying pressure underneath.On the other hand, we also have to worry about demand destruction, and that could have a lot to do with where we go next. Because of this, I think we need to pay close attention to the $115 level, as it was the top of athat we broke out of.
On the other hand, if we were to take out the $125 level above, that could send this market much higher, breaking above the $130 level. In that scenario, the market is more likely than not going to continue to rocket to the upside but we are a little stretched so a pullback should only offer plenty of value.
Now that we are pulling back a bit, I anticipate that there should be some value hunting sooner or later, but part of this might be problems due to a lack of confidence in anything right now, as we have seen a lot of “risk behavior” recently. Nonetheless, I do not have any interest in shorting this market anytime soon, and I think it is probably only a matter of time before we visit the highs yet again.
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