An in-depth analysis of the strategic shifts at Carlton under interim coach Josh Fraser and the midfield and forward line dilemmas currently facing Collingwood.
As the AFL season progresses toward Round 10, the spotlight has shifted heavily toward the internal upheavals and strategic dilemmas facing two of the league's most prominent clubs: Carlton and Collingwood.
For the Blues, the appointment of interim coach Josh Fraser has created what many are describing as a blank canvas. Following the conclusion of the Michael Voss era, the club finds itself at a crossroads where the temptation to lean on veteran experience is clashing with the necessity of long-term growth. Leigh Montagna, a legend of the Saints, has been vocal about the need for a dramatic shift in personnel.
Montagna argues that the current squad is far too experienced for a team that should be eyeing a rebuild toward 2027. He has suggested a bold move to blood youth, proposing that six seasoned players be dropped to make room for the next generation.
Specifically, Montagna suggests that Nic Newman, Nick Haynes, Adam Saad, Zac Williams, Adam Cerra, and Francis Evans should step aside to allow the likes of Talor Byrne, Wade Derksen, Jack Ison, Hudson O'Keeffe, Ashton Moir, and Cooper Lord to prove their worth. The logic is simple: you cannot plan for a future peak in 2027 while fielding a side that is already reaching the twilight of its career.
By integrating these younger players now, the club can identify who possesses the temperament and skill to anchor the team for the next half-decade. Within this tactical overhaul, the role of Adam Cerra has become a significant point of contention. Despite being only 26 years old, Montagna believes Cerra is a liability in the midfield due to a lack of leg speed and power emerging from stoppages.
The comparison is stark when looking at George Hewett and Patrick Cripps; Montagna suggests that having both Hewett and Cerra in the midfield creates a sluggish dynamic that opponents can easily exploit. The statistics back up this critique, with Cerra currently ranked 68th out of 75 midfielders in the competition, a figure that suggests he is not providing the necessary impact.
The proposal is to move Cerra out of the center or omit him entirely to grant the keys of the midfield to young talents like Cooper Lord. This risk is mitigated by the fact that Carlton still possesses a strong core of experienced leaders, including Mitch McGovern, Jacob Weitering, and Patrick Cripps, meaning the club can afford to experiment with its younger cohort without completely sacrificing its competitive edge.
Meanwhile, Collingwood is grappling with a crisis of identity and performance. Described by Gerard Whateley as being as average as you can get, the Magpies have found themselves drifting on the edge of the top ten with a patchy record and a worrying lack of consistency. A crushing 54-point loss to Geelong recently highlighted the depth of their struggles, particularly in the forward half and at the center bounce.
The statistics are revealing, with the team ranking 18th in first possession and 15th in effective clearances to score. This has led to a perceived over-reliance on Nick Daicos, who is often left to carry the midfield burden alone. Jordan Lewis, a four-time premiership winner with Hawthorn, has pointed out a missed opportunity in the utilization of Josh Daicos.
While Josh is an exceptional halfback, his impact as a midfielder over the last two years has been statistically superior to almost any other player with similar minutes. However, the rigid roles of Scott Pendlebury and Ned Long mean that Josh is often trapped in the backline to maintain structural integrity, sacrificing his potential as a secondary playmaker in the center. Adding to these woes is a historical slump in the forward 50.
Collingwood is currently on track to become one of the second-worst forward 50 groundball teams in the history of the league. While fans are eager for the return of Bobby Hill, former coach Nathan Buckley has cautioned that a single player, even a Norm Smith medalist, will not be a panacea for the team's systemic failures. Buckley emphasizes that the Magpies must return to the fierce, high-pressure style that defined their early success under Craig McRae.
The current struggle is not just about missing personnel, but about a loss of the aggressive territorial dominance that once made them feared. As Round 10 approaches, both Carlton and Collingwood face the daunting task of redefining their tactical approaches to avoid a slide down the ladder and to ensure they are building toward a sustainable future
AFL Carlton FC Collingwood Magpies Josh Fraser Footy Analysis
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