NRL: Matty Johns and Cooper Cronk look into the State of Origin decider and how the blockbuster will play out.
Laurie Daley ’s NSW side dominated the series opener and then flew home with a monumental comeback that saw them lose Game II by a narrow margin. The Blues have been the better team in three out of four halves this series — and it’d be a monumental underachievement if they don’t get the job done on Wednesday night.
Reflecting on the game just gone, weather is a great equaliser and the wet Perth conditions has given fans a heavily-anticipated decider. FOX LEAGUE, available on Kayo Sports, is the only place to watch every game of every round in the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership, LIVE with no ad-breaks during play. New to Kayo? Get your first month for just $1.IMAGINE WHAT YOU COULD BE BUYING INSTEAD. Set a deposit limit. For Free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au. But, simply put, this series should have been locked up already. However, there were a number of factors that went against NSW in Game II. Nathan Cleary was clearly battling with a groin injury and his kicking was not up to his usual elite standards. His halves partner Jarome Luai was also given a short, and poor period of preparation, by no fault of his own after an untimely injury to Mitchell Moses. Equally, Daley has been able to stick with the same team as he picked in Game II, an opportunity rarely afforded in the Origin arena.In his last stint as NSW coach, the Raiders and Blues legend was up against the greatest ever Origin side in a period of Queensland dominance. Now he comes into a decider in Sydney, with a team that has been dominant over the last year, and it shapes as a crucial clash. Anyone can win, we know that of the Origin arena, but NSW have a real upper hand ahead of the decider and it’s crucial Daley gets the job done. We also know the best team on paper doesn’t always win Origin and Queensland once again have a ‘backs against the wall’ mentality.The loss of Cameron Munster’s father in tragic scenes has thrown a spanner into their preparations, while Josh Papalii returns in a brilliant Origin swan song. The Maroons have always been able to channel their emotional motivations to get the best results from their team — so the Blues need to put their best foot forward. But overall, it’s a NSW series to lose on Wednesday night and their victory could come down to Queensland’s kicking. Without Daly Cherry-Evans in Game II, Munster shouldered the load with the boot, kicking 10 times to Tom Dearden’s three. The Queensland skipper doesn’t kick for his club team, so the Blues will be targeting Munster when it comes to the back-end of sets. However, that’s a ’Catch-22’ because it could force the dazzling five-eighth to run the ball more, and we’ve all seen what happens when he has the ball in hand.Speaking of Josh Papalii, his return has been touted for several years now — but how can he actually contribute? The 33-year-old was the crown jewel of Queensland’s pathways systems coming through the ranks, alongside Jason Taumalolo. I played against ‘Papa’ all the time, and he was the absolute benchmark and as such, went on to deliver countless times for his state.Papalii is playing alongside arguably the best front rower in the game in clubland, with Joseph Tapine consistently leading the way for the Raiders.Richo speaks on keeping Luai & Api | 02:38 His presence is enough to lift his teammates in the lead-up to the decider, but the biggest thing is whether he can match it on the field. Who is able to win this crucial clash all comes down to the middle of the field and starting on the front foot is vitally important to coming away with a win. Think back to Game I, Zac Lomax pokes his head through the line in a second play carry — that set the tone in a big statement that NSW were ready to go to war. That moment was unlike the Queensland teams of the past, and simply a strange moment in the Origin arena, handing all momentum to the Blues. Now for the Maroons to win the decider, it’s up the Papalii to set the tone and I believe the veteran could be in line for a short, but precedent-setting stint.There’s a difference between a high-level club player and an elite Origin middle forward. In my opinion, Max King is the latter and doesn’t yet have the power and aggression to deliver in the middle of the park for NSW. If we think about it in terms of sinking or swimming, the Bulldogs prop can keep his head above the water and play a role. But this is Origin. You have to beat your opposite man into submission and I worry about his impact in the middle of the park. Playing alongside the might of Payne Haas is no easy feat, and his front row partners do often play simply supporting roles.Take a look at the Panthers, Moses Leota always stood tall alongside James Fisher-Harris during their four premierships, the man considered second fiddle to the Kiwi star. That’s what Billy Slater is looking for in his Queensland side. Josh Papalii has been introduced to match the impact and aggression of Tino Fa’asuamaleaui. To start the game, if Fa’asuamaleaui needs a rest, you can guarantee Papalii will be there to pick up the slack and make a dent in the NSW defensive line.While NSW have Spencer Leniu, does Hudson Young make an equal or even greater impact than his Queensland counterparts in the middle of the park?It’s clear to me the Blues are lacking in the middle, but they do have a big trump card up their sleeves in their wingers. Making up for that middle forward shortfall is Brian To’o and Zac Lomax, arguably the two best wingers in the competition — especially when it comes to carrying from the back. King is an excellent club player, don’t get me wrong. But does he match the aggression and impact of the Maroons pack? I don’t believe his carry is up to scratch and his mentality to find contact doesn’t reflect the likes of Mitch Barnett, who he replaced.Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow’s selection at fullback for Queensland has slipped under the radar to an extent and his name hasn’t been mentioned as much as Josh Papalii or Gehamat Shibasaki.Because if we’re hearing and talking about the Dolphins gun after the decider, it will simply be about how he has torn the Blues apart. The reality is, the more ball the 23-year-old dynamo gets, the more chance he has of making a difference. His support play is second to none, he can breeze past defenders and he’s a dangerous threat in the air. It was an easy choice for Billy Slater.To stop Tabuai-Fidow, NSW will have to take advantage of the weakest part of his game — his carries from the backfield. We saw when he played on the wing in Game II, the Dolphins gun hardly left a dent in the NSW line, but give him space to analyse the line and he’s a true threat. The Blues will have to test him out with high balls and kicking to corners, forcing him to make the tough carries and make light of his biggest question mark.
Jason Taumalolo Monumental Underachievement Swan Song Crown Jewel Support Play Jarome Luai Trump Card Monumental Comeback Josh Papalii Elite Standards Billy Slater Pat Carrigan Max King Absolute Benchmark James Fisher-Harris Payne Haas Jerome Luai Daly Cherry-Evans Sydney Joseph Tapine Dogs Headache Mitchell Moses New South Wales High-Level Club Player Front Row Partners Title Race Young Guns Hunt Back Oceania Play Carry Luai & Apinrl Alex Mckinnon Zac Lomax Newcastle Knights Series Opener Heart Of Midlothian Football Club Question Mark Groin Injury Getty Images Inc. Club Team Australia And New Zealand Club Player Defensive Line Chelsea Football Club Cameron Munster Tom Dearden Tragic Scenes Laurie Daley Shane Richardson Pathways Systems Cooper Cronk Mitch Barnett Reece Walsh Australia Origin Analysis Crucial Clash Moses Leota Queensland
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