‘Will it stack up?’: The big unknown as ‘ultimate contrasting styles’ clash in AFL finals

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‘Will it stack up?’: The big unknown as ‘ultimate contrasting styles’ clash in AFL finals
Uncontested Mark NumbersPort AdelaideUncontested Marks

AFL: Jordan Lewis has slammed Ken Hinkley for his visible sledging of Jack Ginnivan, saying he expects better from a coach.

There’s everything to play for on Saturday night, with a preliminary final berth against Geelong on the line for the victor of tonight’s semi-final clash between Brisbane and GWS. Both teams have contrasting styles, the Lions play an uncontested kick-mark game under Chris Fagan , while Adam Kingsley ’s Giants want the ball moving at rapid speed.

The Giants have won their two encounters already this season, but will it be a case of third time lucky for the Lions? Watch the best coverage of the 2024 AFL finals, with expert analysis and every game until the Grand Final LIVE with no ad-breaks during play, on Kayo. New to Kayo?St Kilda champion Leigh Montagna broke down the chaos versus control battle on Fox Footy’s AFL360. “This is the ultimate contrasting styles and the way that teams want to play – what is going to stack up and hold up in a cutthroat final?” Montagna began. “When you take a look at the numbers it is stark, these are two sides that play completely opposite in the way they go about it. “The Giants don’t like to kick the footy, they’re a handball team over kicking where Brisbane are the complete opposite, they kick way more than they handball, which leads to the uncontested mark numbers.”The Giants rank 18th in the competition for kick percentage, while the Lions rank first. When it comes to handball percentage, the tables are flipped, and the Lions are 18th and the Giants first. The Giants rank 13th for uncontested marks and the Lions are first, but they rank first for pressure and the Lions a lowly 16th. The Giants are 12th for time in forward half and the Lions are second, but the Giants are second for play on percentage and the Lions are 15th. What do these numbers say? Put simply, the Giants want utter chaos, while the Lions want to be able to control proceedings. “We know Brisbane want to control the footy, build it up and get it in their front half, that’s how they set their game, or from clearance which is a real strength of theirs,” Montagna said.Montagna highlighted how the Giants’ pressure game would hold them in good stead in a finals furnace. “They’re used to it because they’ve done it all season long. They play in the third highest pressure rating games across the course of the season. Brisbane, because of their style, play in the third lowest.”Brisbane were able to get the elimination final against Carlton on their terms early, laying the platform for a strong win. But does their control style stack up against the Giants? The Giants beat the Lions on both occasions earlier this season as the Orange Tsunami was in full effect. Their fast style of play, where they look to run the opposition off their feet, looks likely to stack up in September. “They wore the uncontested game down,” Montagna said of the Giants’ recent performance against the Lions. “Brisbane are used to getting a bit of tempo on the game, being able to control the ball, set behind the football, get all their numbers forward of centre and then they can lock it in. The smalls then get to work… that’s how they want to set the game.” When the Giants gain over 450 metres per match via handball – think overlapping chains – they have a win-loss record of 10-2. When they get less than that, the record drops to 5-7. Contrastingly, when the Lions take over 95 uncontested marks, their win-loss record is 11-2. When it’s less than that, their record slips to 4-6-1. When they control the game, they hardly get beaten.One key match-up to keep an eye on is whether or not Lions stopper Brandon Starcevich can curb Giants captain Toby Greene’s influence. In the 87 minutes the pair were matched up the last time they met, Starcevich restricted Greene to just one goal and two disposals. “We know how proud he is as a player… he knows this is coming. He struggled against Rampe, who’s a bit bigger than him and clamped him. Can Starcevich take care of it again and leave it up to Jesse Hogan to try and kick a score for the Giants?” Montagna posed. The Giants will be bolstered by the return of star tagger Toby Bedford, who has been missing in recent weeks with a hamstring injury. Montagna thinks he will go to dual Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale in tonight’s mouth-watering clash. “He has to go to Lachie Neale, since round 13 he’s averaging almost nine clearances a game, the first half of the year was about six. He’s their barometer, Bedford has to try and limit his influence, and I think that helps the Giants.”

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Uncontested Mark Numbers Port Adelaide Uncontested Marks Hamstring Injury Kick Percentage Uncontested Kick-Mark Game Pressure Game Semi-Final Victory Hawthorn Hawks Oceania South Australia Cutthroat Final Elimination Final Preliminary Final Brisbane Lions Toby Bedford Jordan Lewis Finals Furnace Jesse Hogan Ken Hinkley Semi-Final Preview Chris Fagan Australia And New Zealand Highest Pressure Rating Handball Team Real Strength Jack Ginnivan Greater Western Sydney Giants Leigh Montagna Semi-Final Loss Adam Kingsley Toby Greene Pressure Rating Games Control Style Stack Sam Mitchell Australia Semi-Final Clash Win-Loss Record

 

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