Independent analysis of Melbourne's West Gate Tunnel reveals it has significantly improved West Gate Bridge travel speeds but has only achieved half of the promised vehicle reduction targets, with questions raised about data transparency and long-term projections.
An independent analysis of traffic data has revealed that Melbourne 's $10.2 billion West Gate Tunnel has significantly improved travel times on the West Gate Bridge, with average speeds increasing by nearly 20 percent. However, the same data indicates that the tunnel has fallen considerably short of the traffic volume reduction targets initially promised by the Allan government.
The comprehensive analysis, which examined over 132 million traffic observations, found that average speeds on the West Gate Bridge during the morning peak period rose by 8.7 kilometers per hour following the tunnel's opening in December. Speeds increased from an average of 46.4 km/h in November and December to 55.1 km/h in the period since its launch. This improvement suggests a more fluid traffic flow across the bridge.
Furthermore, the data shows a notable decrease in heavy vehicle traffic on the bridge, with the number of daily truck movements dropping by almost 18 percent, from 20,142 trucks per day to 16,518. This reduction is a positive outcome for local roads and the overall environment.
Despite these improvements in speed and heavy vehicle reduction, the core promise of diverting a substantial number of vehicles away from the West Gate Bridge appears to be only half-realized. The analysis found that the tunnel is currently diverting traffic at only half the rate that Premier Jacinta Allan stated when the tunnel opened. At the time of its launch, Ms. Allan declared that the West Gate Tunnel would remove 28,000 cars per day from the West Gate Bridge, thereby easing congestion for all road users, even those who do not use the tunnel directly.
However, the public data indicates that the tunnel has, in fact, removed only 14,373 vehicles per day from the West Gate Bridge. Daily traffic on the bridge decreased from 192,875 vehicles in November and early December to 178,502 vehicles from mid-December through March. For the government's initial traffic reduction claim to be met, an additional 13,600 drivers would need to switch from the West Gate Bridge to the new toll road each day.
In response to the discrepancy, the government has stated that Premier Allan's comment referred to a long-term target for the year 2031. However, this projected modeling was not explicitly mentioned at the time of the announcement and is not detailed on the Big Build website, making it difficult for the public to understand the basis of the initial claims. The Department of Transport has also provided figures suggesting that the tunnel diverted 21,000 vehicles per day from the bridge between January and April this year compared to the same period in the previous year. A spokesperson also claimed that average daily traffic in March alone dropped by 24,663 vehicles compared to March 2025. Nevertheless, the longer-term data supporting these assertions has not been released, hindering independent verification.
Further scrutiny of the data by the Herald Sun revealed that traffic measurements were conducted only between 5 am and 11 pm, excluding a full 24-hour period, and that two weeks of March data were absent from the public database. This raises questions about the completeness and accuracy of the publicly available information.
A government spokesperson, speaking to The Herald Sun, emphasized that the West Gate Tunnel is fundamentally changing how people travel across Melbourne's west, offering a crucial alternative to the West Gate Bridge. They highlighted its role in reducing travel times and removing thousands of trucks from local roads. The spokesperson also acknowledged that, as with any major new infrastructure project, it will take time for drivers to become acquainted with the tunnel's routes and integrate it into their daily commutes.
Retired computer scientist Clarke Towson, who conducted the independent analysis by building his own database from publicly available road sensor information, identified the gap between government projections and actual traffic counts. His work underscores the challenges in achieving ambitious traffic reduction goals with new infrastructure.
The Victorian Transport Association chief executive, Peter Anderson, noted that while the toll road is proving beneficial for moving trucks out of the inner west, many operators are reluctant to use it due to customer unwillingness to cover the potentially high toll costs, which can reach $30.30 per trip. Anderson suggested that a more predictable, annual fee structure could encourage greater adoption by transport operators.
Adding to the complexity, Transurban has reported that 39,000 daily trips are utilizing the tunnel, a figure that cannot be independently verified and may include repeat journeys. Moreover, public road sensor mapping indicates that significant sections of the West Gate corridor lack traffic counters, meaning there is no publicly accessible data to confirm the exact daily usage of the tunnel
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