A Democratic sweep would boost the economy and is preferential to electing Donald Trump, who would hurt gross domestic product, according to the bank.
“We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse” from maintaining most tax cuts, Goldman economists, including Alec Phillips, wrote in a note on Tuesday US time.
Kamala Harris, who would bring “a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026”, says Goldman.Should Vice President Kamala Harris win and Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates”, the Goldman economists wrote. That would result in “a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026″.
Harris campaign spokesperson Joe Costello said that “right, left, or centre, experts agree that Trump is threatening an economic disaster” of skyrocketing unemployment, an inflation “bomb”, exploding debt and a potential recession.With President Joe Biden already having taken steps to tighten immigration, Goldman expects a Harris administration to oversee a slowdown in new arrivals to 1.5 million a year. That is still higher than the pre-pandemic average of about 1 million.
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