Aaron Finch is hopeful he will be fit to play against Afghanistan as Australia tread a fine line in their final crucial Super 12s match
One day before Australia’s finalgroup match, captain Aaron Finch was doing the maths. “I’m not bad when it’s in cricket terms. When it’s anything else – maths wasn’t my best subject at school. One thing that I love is when they have a runs per over required when you’re chasing… it’s never been my strong point.”
His first set of calculations involved sore hamstrings: “maybe 70-30” was how he assessed the likelihood that his injury will let him play. Batting finisher Tim David was “in exactly the same boat”, the pair showing similar results on their scans. Both would be put through a workout from medical staff to assess whether they can endure the rigours of an international match.Even if cleared, risk avoidance means the players still have a final call to make.
To recap, that means a 1% problem will create a 100% chance of withdrawing from a match, in situations within the 30% likelihood that the test is not satisfactory. A test that falls within the 70% field of a satisfactory result means that a player is 100% ready to go. Upcoming opponents Afghanistan have a simpler set of numbers: spinner Rashid Khan with his sore knee is still their No 1 player, and even at 50% capacity is still a 100% chance to play.
Finch’s other equation is more complex: net run rate, and how much Australia would need to improve theirs to surpass England for a semi-final place should the two finish level on points. Net run rate makes sense as a cricketing concept – how fast did you score compared to how well you defended? But it’s not a calculation that most people can do in their heads while sitting in the stands, and the results are not intuitive at a glance in the way that something like goal difference in football is.
Shuffling a batting order might depend on those injuries. If one player misses, Cameron Green would likely come in, the giant who opened recently in India to smash 61 from 30 balls and follow up with 52 off 21. Steve Smith could add middle-order creativity. If both injured players miss out, those two are the only options in the squad. Within the XI, promoting Glenn Maxwell or Marcus Stoinis for the powerplay would be an option, considering the likelihood of Afghanistan bowling spin during it.
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