See how the next federal election is shaping up with Guardian Australia’s statistical model, which combines all opinion polls to get a better estimate of the two-party preferred vote
Who will win? Find out who’s up, who’s down and which party is leading in the latest poll results. As the 2025 Australian federal election approaches, political polls are coming thick and fast. This page will be regularly updated so you can track who is polling up, how the independents are faring and how the parties stand with different demographics.
To get a sample that reflects the nation at large, pollsters collect a lot of demographic information, including age, sex, location and education.The following charts use simple rolling averages to try to find the underlying trend in two-party support. There has been no adjustment for sample size, house effects, weighting or release date.
The poll tracker pools all of the polls using a model developed by political scientists at the University of Sydney. It assumes political intentions yesterday are similar to today and today is like tomorrow, but with small random changes. As noted above - the model begins with the last election results and assumes voting intentions evolve over time. The model indicates the polls are overestimating the Labor vote. This patternbetween the 2016 and 2019 elections. In that period the model was correcting for the pollsters’ systematic bias between those elections.No. It is simply an aggregation of the public polls. It is a snapshot in time of people's stated voting intentions, which can change.
But this data is still useful and should be included in some form. Given we can’t model the data in the same way, we are instead using a simple rolling average to track it over time. - The main poll tracker is based on work by Dr Luke Mansillo and Prof Simon Jackman. You can find their paper- These types of models are often used in fields such as robotics, economics and medicine to create estimates from noisy measurements.
Australia Latest News, Australia Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
2025 Geely EX5: EV newcomer gunning for budget rivals in leaked Australian pricing7NEWS brings you the latest local news from Australia and around the world. Stay up to date with all of the breaking sport, politics, entertainment, finance, weather and business headlines. Today's news, live updates & all the latest breaking stories from 7NEWS.
Read more »
2025 Ford F-150: Australian arrival delayed for updated pickup7NEWS brings you the latest local news from Australia and around the world. Stay up to date with all of the breaking sport, politics, entertainment, finance, weather and business headlines. Today's news, live updates & all the latest breaking stories from 7NEWS.
Read more »
Australian musical icons on why regional touring matters in 2025What the gig guide at your local pub says about the health of Australia's touring music industry.
Read more »
F1 Academy fielding two Australian women for 2025 seasonAustralia will be represented in the all-female Formula 1 Academy series for the first time, with teenagers Joanne Ciconte and Aiva Anagnostiadis joining the grid for the 2025 season.
Read more »
Meet the 2025 Trailblazers innovating and inspiring regional AustraliaAfter doctors dismissed Rheanca's pain because they couldn't see where it hurt, she knew people with disability in regional areas needed a space to connect. She is one of Heywire's 2025 Trailblazers winners.
Read more »
2025 GWM Cannon Alpha PHEV: BYD Shark hunter details leaked7NEWS brings you the latest local news from Australia and around the world. Stay up to date with all of the breaking sport, politics, entertainment, finance, weather and business headlines. Today's news, live updates & all the latest breaking stories from 7NEWS.
Read more »