China's economic growth risks slipping below the lower-end of Beijing 2019 ...
BEIJING - China’s economic growth risks slipping below the lower-end of Beijing 2019 target of 6% in the third quarter or over the next year, analysts warn, but government economists are slightly more optimistic as they expect stimulus to help stave off a sharper slowdown.
Economic activity worsened in August, with growth in industrial production at its weakest in 17-1/2 years, as the U.S.-China trade war dented business confidence, investment and domestic consumption.“But we expect September will see a jump in fixed-asset investment because many gift projects for 70th anniversary will be confirmed to be in the statistics at the quarter end. So we maintain our forecast of Q3 GDP 6.1%,” he told Reuters.
“We forecast third-quarter growth would be 6.1%, before recovering somewhat in the fourth quarter, to 6.2%,” said Zhang Yuxian, head of economic forecasting department of State Information Center, a top government think tank. Chen Wenling, chief economist at China Center for International Economic Exchanges , a well-connected think tank, told reporters that she expected growth to be around 6.2% this year and around 6% in 2020.
Room for stimulus is limited as policymakers worry about rising debt risks and property bubbles, although accelerating consumer inflation has yet to become a big concern, policy insiders said.
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