The Conservatives face a moment of acute political danger. If the rising cost of living and global economic reverberations of events in Ukraine continue to be felt by voters, the party could lose its status as most trusted on the economy.
Already public economic optimism is falling sharply. IpsosMORI's tracker suggests it is at its lowest point since the height of the global financial crisis in July 2008.
Nevertheless, at the general election the following year, Mrs Thatcher won one of the biggest electoral majorities of modern political history. Many analysts put that victory down to a"Falklands effect". But even at the time, this was disputed, with eminent political scientist David Sanders showing that rising economic confidence was a more crucial factor.
The Heath government saw a sharp drop in people saying the Conservatives were the best party to handle economic issues. Labour benefitted, opening a five-point advantage a year before the general election.John Major's Conservative Party watched its rating on the economy fall by several points as Labour took the lead on the issue. It was an advantage Labour held for more than a decade.
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