Fall in New Zealand house prices offers insight into what might happen in Australia

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Fall in New Zealand house prices offers insight into what might happen in Australia
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Australian house prices are not expected to plummet below pre-COVID levels with experts saying the local property market can look to the “soft landing” being experienced in New Zealand as a guide

New Zealand, which is six months in their downturn, are on track for a soft landing and a good indicator of where Australian could land..

There have been four more rises since, with the expectation of another 0.50 percentage point increase when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday. That will take New Zealand’s cash rate to 2.5 per cent. The bank’s chief economist Sharon Zollner said while there were risks of larger price falls, so far, it was on track for a “soft landing”.

“Housing affordability is not getting any better, as bank serviceability tests rates go up, the amount you can borrow is shrinking faster than house prices are going down.”Credit:PRD chief economist Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo said Australia was on a similar path as New Zealand started its rate rises sooner.

Barrenjoey capital chief economist Jo Masters said while it was worth watching New Zealand closely, there are clear differences in Australia that could potentially see households at home better off. “The leverage in Auckland is much greater than either Sydney or Melbourne. Here we talk about the proportion of debt over six times one’s income. At the moment, in Australia it’s a little under a quarter of new mortgages, but it’s running over 50 per cent in New Zealand,” Masters said.

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