Author of bestselling account Sleepwalkers, widely read in Germany, says the 1914 analogy is flawed
In recent weeks, the chancellor Olaf Scholz cited Clark’s book in one off-the-record conversation with international media as a case study in how irresponsible politicians could goad each other through bellicose rhetoric into a conflict that wasn’t in their interest. He has reportedly assured other journalists that he would become “no Kaiser Wilhelm”, the German emperor who led his country into the war.
“There is no analogy between 1914 and the situation in Ukraine now”, Clark said. “The first world war began in an incredibly complex, around-the-houses way. Whereas in the case of the invasion of Ukraine, in 2014 and this year, it’s quite clearly a case of the breach of the peace by just one power. “Hitler had a profoundly racist philosophy, where the Germans were a biomass that was going to expand across the European continent. A better analogy would be with the opportunist Russian predations of the 19th century – most of which we in the west don’t know much about, because they were at the expense of the Ottoman empire. The world in general is more and more like the 19th century: multipolar and unpredictable.
What was often overlooked, he said, was a centuries-old divide among Germany’s intelligentsia between those who were committed to an alliance with France and Britain, and those “who believed Prussia or Germany should never do anything the Russians weren’t happy with”. Nonetheless, he stressed that Germany’s government risked losing credibility in Europe at a pivotal moment in history. “I understand Scholz and I thought I understood what he is trying to do, a policy of increasing commitment to the assistance to Ukraine. As long as that is the case, it’s fine to talk the long game and speak quietly rather than wave a big stick. But if you are speaking quietly and carrying a twig, that’s not so great. You need to follow up with concerted action.
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