A combination of a more efficient vote and a rise in tactical voting gives Ed Davey an opportunity to double Commons representation
Ed Davey’s target map for the Liberal Democrats. ‘The national swing against the Conservatives, to the benefit of the Lib Dems, is not the full story,’ says one expert.Ed Davey’s target map for the Liberal Democrats. ‘The national swing against the Conservatives, to the benefit of the Lib Dems, is not the full story,’ says one expert.
Edward Fieldhouse, a professor of social and political science at the University of Manchester and director of the British Election Study, said the Liberal Democrats were “likely to improve on the 11 seats won in 2019 because they have improved their vote share where it counts most – in areas where they are already stronger.
While urging caution towards current MRP models predicting a very high number of seats for the Lib Dems, David Cutts, a political science professor at the University of Birmingham and co-author of The Liberal Democrats: From Hope to Despair to Where?, said these seats included two types of Lib Dem target.
Home ownership is also higher than the national average in these seats, and they tended to have a higher than average remain vote in the EU referendum in 2016. Despite this, the seats they currently hold are much more remain-backing. Pointing to the fact that, historically, there was more tactical voting between Labour and Lib Dem supporters, Fieldhouse said: “We should expect a fair amount of tactical switching between Labour and the Lib Dems, with the latter being the beneficiary in places that they can make a reasonable case that they are in second place or which they have won in historically – especially in the south-west and parts of the south-east.”.
“The better the Lib Dems did in 2019, the more likely 2019 Conservative voters are to switch to the Lib Dems rather than Labour. Whether tactically or otherwise, 2019 Labour voters are also much more likely to have switched to the Liberal Democrats in places the Lib Dems did well last time.”“The Lib Dems are not masters of their own fate. They become more credible particularly when the incumbent government is faring badly.
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