Model shows party losing seats to Labour, Reform UK and Lib Dems amid dissatisfaction with government
show in no uncertain terms just how much trouble the Conservatives are in. Our model has the Conservatives winning just 115 seats, with Labour on 453. To compare, in 1997 Tony Blair’s Labour party won 418 and John Major’s Conservatives 178. On these results, the Conservatives could be heading for their worst general election defeat in modern political history.
One of the key benefits over a normal poll is that the geographic detail helps us understand the pattern of current voting intentions. And we have produced a whole range of interactive maps for fellow geeks to get lost in.are performing so badly nationwide. Rishi Sunak’s party is losing support across the country, but especially in stronger areas such as the east and south of England and across the Midlands.
Support for the Conservative party is falling most where it was strongest in 2019. Sometimes referred to as a “proportional swing”, this means it is losing more seats in the first past the post system than if the swing against it was more uniform. The top four issues according to the public have been clear for some time – the NHS, the economy, cost of living and immigration – and across all of them public dissatisfaction with the government’s record is deep.Make sense of the UK election campaign with Archie Bland's daily briefing, direct to your inbox at 5pm .
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