This week, NATO will be practising nuclear attacks during a major European war that some analysts fear could lead to escalation
The timing might seem alarming, but the risks still look small. The more Russia’s forces are pushed back, however, the greater the fear that its president, Vladimir Putin, will use nukes in Ukraine, as he has from time to time threatened to do. As President Joe Biden put it, the world faces the greatest threat of “Armageddon” since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.
Will the world get any warning if Mr Putin is about to go over the nuclear brink? Probably, say Western spooks. To judge from their foreknowledge of Russia’s invasion, they seem to have good insight into the Kremlin’s decision-making. As for satellites and other technical means, much would depend on which weapons it decided to use.
Western countries know the tell-tale signs because, after the cold war, they worked for decades with Russia to improve the safety of its nuclear arsenal under the Co-operative Threat Reduction programme. Some of Russia’s specialist equipment and procedures were designed with the help of Western experts., says a large movement of warheads would be almost certain to be spotted.
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