See how the next federal election is shaping up with Guardian Australia’s statistical model, which combines all opinion polls to get a better estimate of the two-party preferred vote
As the Australian federal election approaches, political polls are coming thick and fast. This page will be regularly updated so you can track who is polling up, how the independents are faring and how the parties stand with different demographics.| Poll averaging model by Dr Luke Mansillo and based on work by Professor Simon Jackman; poll data sourced from pollster websites and media reports.
Looking at two-party support alone can obscure one of the biggest stories of the last election: almost a third of votes were for independents and other parties.and the continuation of a steady decline since the two parties claimed 98% of votes in 1951., Greens and others/independents. It is based on the same model as our main tracker, starting with the vote share at the last election. Use the drop-down menu to see what has changed over different periods since the election.
The chart below groups respondents by sex – male or female. As the numbers are rolling averages, they will not always add up to 100. These types of models are often used in fields such as robotics, economics and medicine to create estimates from noisy measurements.
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