Despite the effort expended on trying, Russia has not generated a sufficiently thick fog of war through cyberwarfare
in August, Ukraine’s response was “arguably…the most effective defensive cyber-activity in history”. Ukraine had been a test bed for Russian cyber-operations for years. Industroyer2’s predecessor, Industroyer, for example, was the cause of the blackouts in 2016. That gave the government insight into Russian operations, and time to harden its infrastructure.
There is no doubt that Ukraine was a hard target. But there are those who wonder whether Russia’s cyber-prowess might have been overrated. Russian spies have decades of experience with cyber-espionage, but the country’s military cyber-forces are “very young” compared with Western rivals, notes Gavin Wilde, a former director of Russia policy on America’s national security council. America began integrating cyber-plans into military operations during wars in Haiti and Kosovo in the 1990s.
“There were significant operational failings in almost every single attack that they have ever carried out in cyberspace,” says Mr Moore. In contrast, he points to Stuxnet, an Israeli-American cyber-attack on an Iranian nuclear facility, first identified 12 years ago—technologically, ancient history. “That was far more complex than a lot of what we see from Russia today.
After the war’s first week, therefore, as Viasat-like set pieces were used up, Russian cyber-attacks grew more tactical and opportunistic. Then, in April, as Russia turned from Kyiv to the Donbas, the volume of wiper attacks dropped precipitously. In November, researchers at Mandiant, a cyber-security firm owned by Alphabet, described howwas now attacking “edge” devices such as routers, firewalls and email servers to speed up attacks, even at the expense of stealthiness.
There are also those who believe the power of cyberwarfare has been misunderstood. Cyber-operations have been “intense and important”, acknowledges Ciaran Martin, Ms Cameron’s predecessor at the. But the war has illustrated “the severe limitations of cyber as a wartime capability”, he says. Stuxnet, which infected Iranian systems that were “air gapped” , mechanically damaged machinery, yet remained undetected for months.
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