Mining exports could plunge $100bn over four years, slashing $36bn from federal revenue, Myefo suggests

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Mining exports could plunge $100bn over four years, slashing $36bn from federal revenue, Myefo suggests
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Company tax receipts to be revised downwards for the first time since 2020, mid year budget update reveals

Mining exports are set to plunge more than $100bn over the next four years and deliver an $8.5bn hit to company tax receipts, representing a $36bn reversal in forecast federal revenue compared with a year ago, this week’s mid year budget update will reveal.

“The global economy is uncertain, the global outlook is unsettling and that’s weighing heavily on our economy.”, the May budget suggested company tax receipts would increase by $26.2bn over the five years from 2023. It flagged falls in mining exports in future years but said strength in the rest of the economy would still mean company tax receipts rose.

Under the downside scenario, it found company tax receipts could fall $4.5bn over the four-year forward estimates. But it did not foresee a fall in exports of this magnitude.

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