IMF has revised up growth forecasts but medium-term prospects remain poor as globalisation goes into reverse
Delegates arrive at a development committee plenary during the World Bank and IMF spring meetings at the World Bank HQ in Washington this month.Delegates arrive at a development committee plenary during the World Bank and IMF spring meetings at the World Bank HQ in Washington this month.he 2020s are almost halfway over and are on course to be the most difficult decade for the global economy since the 1930s.
This analysis is only true up to a point. There has been plenty of scarring in the poorest and weakest countries, and in the developed world the US is the outlier, with performance markedly worse inon Israel would lead to a full-blown conflict and have the same deleterious impact on the global economy as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.with missile strikes of its own but Tehran and Tel Aviv seem keen to avoid all-out war. Oil prices rose but not by much.
So, it’s obvious why the IMF is monitoring events in the Middle East carefully and with some trepidation. The global economy has only just come out of intensive care and badly needs a period of calm in order to recover. It could do without the damage that oil prices soaring to well over $100 would provide in the event that the Middle East takes a turn for the worse.
In part that is because of the boost to industrial production needed for the war, but it is also because Russia has found plenty of customers for its energy exports. The war has highlighted and widened the gulf between the rich countries of the global north and the big emerging countries of the global south.remained “steady and firm” but that’s not really the case. Kyiv is backed by the G7 countries but not by many big emerging economies such as South Africa.
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