'All transitions have involved guarantees for the losers.' That is likely to be true of Venezuela, too
their home country was built on oil, it is appropriate that the social hub of Venezuelan exiles in Miami should be a diner at a petrol station. El Arepazo is in Doral, a suburb near Miami’s international airport with a golf resort belonging to President Donald Trump. It is a shrine to a Venezuela lost. It is wallpapered with blown-up black-and-white photos of Caracas in the 1950s and 1960s. Along with strong coffee it sellsMorale among the clientele is sagging.
This does not mean they are dead, though some in the Trump administration have never believed in them. Elliott Abrams, the State Department’s special representative for Venezuela, says: “We’re not trying to torpedo the talks. We think our policies have made the talks possible.” His position in the administration has been strengthened by the failure of theTop of the list is the position of Mr Maduro in a transition.
Critics of American policy point out that sanctions have never toppled determined dictators. Although the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela is of Mr Maduro’s making, the longer sanctions last the more they will add to it. But what is the alternative? Even if a military coup were possible, “we know that a negotiated solution is more likely to produce a stable democracy,” says Mr Abrams.
Mr Maduro’s people are likely to agree to a transition only if they have credible guarantees that they will not be jailed or expelled from politics. Rather than an amnesty, that means a national-unity government in which they have sufficient power to protect themselves, argues an experienced former American diplomat. “All negotiated transitions have involved guarantees for the losers.”
Without such an agreement, El Arepazo’s customers may be in for a long wait. Beside the café, groups of men sit at tables under an awning playing dominoes. The scene could be that on Miami’s Calle Ocho, where the Cuban exiles’ domino games have lasted 60 years."Settling for half an arepa"
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