Gazprom’s $11bn project to deliver gas from Russia to Germany seems impossible to abandon and impossible to carry forward
The pipeline’s construction was completed in September after many postponements and legal hurdles straddled. But the Gazprom board is now waiting for final legal permission from German regulators to start sending gas down the pipeline to grateful German consumers. That permission has become the subject of early infighting within the new German coalition, made all the more intense by Putin’s threats to Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Kyiv has also argued that the pipeline will increase Russia’s control and share of the European gas market and therefore give Putin a chance to put his boot on the windpipe of Europe. The pipeline has an annual capacity of 55bn cubic metres – more than half of the 95bn cubic metres of gas Germans consumed through 2019.
Initially the Biden administration’s approach was one of continuity, copying the firm line adopted by Trump and urging Europe not to make itself vulnerable to Russian energy blackmail. This judgment has been repeatedly questioned, including in the UK. Biden decided to give the pipeline his reluctant blessing this spring, precisely at a time when Putin had first started to mass troops on the border of Ukraine. He also gave the go-ahead just as the German Green party, adamantly opposed to the pipeline and determined to take Germany in a new foreign policy direction, had climbed in the polls to become the largest party ahead of the September election.
The German Greens were also deeply disappointed the state department had swallowed the German diplomat’s argument that the pipeline was unstoppable. Yes, Gazprom was almost within touching distance of the finishing tape, but there were still significant regulatory hurdles ahead within Germany and the EU.
Lough argues Germany finds it very difficult to accept that Russia has been steadily moving in an authoritarian direction. “To do so you would have to shift policy and recognise you are dealing with a much more difficult partner”. “Both sides have to think about whether this bridge can be demolished completely and without replacement,” he recently said. “I think breaking bridges is not a sign of strength. How are we supposed to influence a situation that we perceive as unacceptable, when we cut the last connections?”
Mecklenburg-West Pomerania state premier, Manuela Schwesig, left, visits the industrial port of Lubmin.“If we want to get out of nuclear energy and coal power, we need gas at least for a transitional period,” she has said.
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