The increasing hostility between North Korea and South Korea, coupled with North Korea's nuclear program advancements and its new alliances with Russia and Iran, poses a significant threat to regional stability. This article explores the implications of Donald Trump's presidency on the US-North Korea relationship and the potential for an escalation of tensions.
Under Donald Trump , the US may become an unreliable ally. The case is getting stronger for Seoul to build its own deterrent as frozen conflicts can suddenly turn hot without warning. Look at Ukraine, Syria or Armenia-Azerbaijan. Might Korea be next? For almost three-quarters of a century, an armistice – not a peace treaty – has prevented old foes North Korea and South Korea from engaging in open warfare. Now, momentously, the ice is cracking. But it’s not a political thaw.
Mutual hostility is undiminished. It’s not because Kim Jong-un’s impoverished hermit kingdom is imploding, as often predicted. Rather, it’s because North Korea, buoyed by new friends in high places, is on a roll while South Korea is suffering a diplomatic setback. Why does this matter to the world at large? In one word: nukes. Defying decades of sanctions, Kim has built a formidable arsenal of missiles and nuclear warheads. Emboldened by a new security alliance with Russia and ties to Iran, tolerated and aided by China, and primed to exploit Donald Trump’s trademark cluelessness, North Korea’s maverick regime, against all odds, is gaining confidence. Dictator Kim – Asia’s putative “mad king” – was always dangerous. Now he’s getting downright bullish. Last week he claimed that the US, South Korea and Japan were planning a nuclear attack and proclaimed an aggressive stance. Kim has redesignated South Korea a “hostile state”, dashing any lingering hope of peaceful reunification. “Kim has been a distinct beneficiary of the growing antagonism between the US and both China and Russia,” wrote the. “Perversely, even as North Korea becomes more threatening to its neighbour in the south and poses a greater military challenge to the west, it has gained more economic stability and become less vulnerable to outside pressure.” During Trump’s second term, North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes may turn even more provocative, Lankov suggested
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