Budget addresses issues for women, but economic factors will determine whether it can deliver on promises
The trajectory of the economy in NSW and beyond will determine whether the budget can deliver on its promises, such as shifting from a record annual deficit estimated at $16.56bn for the fiscal year about to end to a surplus of $601m by 2024-25. In the background, net debt at $53.5bn at June 2022 will more than double to $114.8bn in four years’ time when it will “stabilise” at 14% of gross state produce “before trending back down”.
Inflation and its consequences – good and bad for the budget – are also among the numbers to watch. The budget counts only Sydney’s consumer price inflation rate – rather than NSW-wide – and this it sees accelerating from 4% in 2021-22 to peak at 5.5% in the coming year before easing back to 3% in the two following years.
Rising inflation, meanwhile, will have a benefit of lifting the GST take NSW receives from the Commonwealth, pumping more than $11bn extra into the budget over the coming four years than earlier forecast. Aside from a $4bn boost from extra minerals royalties – thanks largely to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sending coal prices skyward – no other budget boost came close.
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