Polling shows ‘Gen teal’ wave could wash over Victorian election

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Polling shows ‘Gen teal’ wave could wash over Victorian election
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Teal independents could replicate their federal success and capitalise on what new polling predicts is a drop-off in support for the Liberal Party at the November state election. | paulsakkal and annikasmethurst

conducted by prominent psephologist, Kevin Bonham, found Redbridge picked the winner in the five “teal” seats it polled during the campaign. “All had the right winner and were also outstanding on the implied 2PP [two-party preferred] margins,” Bonham’s review found., while supporters of Zoe Daniel are still mulling runs in Brighton, Sandringham and Caulfield.

Voters in the seats of Brighton, Caulfield and Sandringham were asked who they would support if given a choice of a “candidate like Zoe Daniel” or another party. Local Liberal MPs were named. In Hawthorn and Kew, the same question was asked about Ryan and local Liberal candidates were named.In Brighton , 39 per cent said they would vote Liberal , 23 per cent said they would vote Labor, 23 per cent said they would vote for an independent and seven per cent said they would vote Greens.

In Hawthorn , 37 per cent said they would vote Liberal , 22 per cent said they would vote Labor, 22 per cent said they would vote for an independent and 12 per cent said they would vote Green. Redbridge said this would result in a 55-45 independent win. A Liberal source connected to the Hawthorn campaign said the level of support for an independent represented about half of the primary vote for Ryan in May, and was a sign of moderate Liberal candidate John Pesutto’s suitability. However, teal candidates such as Ryan and Daniel were polling in the teens three months before the federal election.

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