Debt, demographics and geopolitics aside, swing factor is whether artificial intelligence can revolutionise productivity
he first quarter of the 21st century is almost up, assuming one regards 31 December 1999 to have been the last day of the last millennium . It is the cue for analysts at Deutsche Bank to remind investors how much can change in the course of 25 years, in this case from the days when Nokia phones and fax machines, rather than iPhones and Amazon, were everyday features of life.
In similar fashion, delusional dotcom thinking at the turn of the century provoked ridiculous speculation that the stock market was heading for the moon. A book called Dow 36,000 became a bestseller, predicting that the Dow Jones industrial average, then about 10,000, would hit the named level “within a few years”. It took 22 years.
Gold actually did better in an era of aggressive central bank and government interventions to combat everything from the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000, 9/11 in 2001, the global financial crisis in 2008, Covid in 2020, and the surge in energy and food prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. “There’s still a big outstanding question as to whether this buildup of debt is storing up significant problems for the future,” writes Jim Reid, the Deutsche head of global economics.
“Given that demographics almost certainly deteriorate further in the 2024-49 quarter century, it stands to reason that all other things being equal , you would expect another quarter century of below long-term average real GDP growth and real equity returns, especially in the developed market world,” Reid writes.
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