The article explores the impact of Donald Trump's return to the White House on the liberal international order. It argues that Trump's presidency represents a challenge to existing norms and institutions, prompting countries around the world to reassess their strategies and relationships.
revisionist state has arrived on the scene to contest the liberal international order, and it is not Russia or China, it is the United States. It is Trump in the Oval Office, the beating heart of the free world. The incoming administration contests every element of the liberal international order – trade, alliances, migration, multilateralism, democratic solidarity and human rights.
A second group, led by China, foresees a diplomatic shake-up in which America becomes an agent of instability, leading to some kind of globalised realignment. For Beijing – facing the threat of 50% tariffs – the silver lining is that Trump’s willingness to treat friends as foes may create a leadership vacuum that China, as the so-called advocate of “the global majority”, can exploit.
That need not be surprising. Trump, it should be recalled, describes the EU as a “not-so-mini-China”. His threat to impose tariffs has already stimulated an internal debate in Europe on how to respond. The president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, has been accused of running up the white flag by saying Europe should try to ward off tariffs by buying US arms and liquefied natural gas.
Trump complained: “We are in for $350bn. Europe is in for $150bn. That needs to be equalised. The war with Russia is important for everyone, but it’s more important for Europe than us. We have a little thing called an ocean between us.” The use of the European peace facility – an EU military aid fund – to help Ukraine, which was advocated by Borrell, was a significant step. Overall progress towards creating a European defence capability has been glacial, however. He blames a lack of political will, symbolised by the opposition within the EU to ending the national veto in all foreign policy decisions. Borrell explained: “We live in an ecosystem where you cannot speak, you cannot open your mouth if there is no unity.
Even Trump’s closest allies seem divided on how he will react. Some US diplomats brief: “Trump is not going to be like Bush or Obama. Sure, he’ll take calls from Gulf leaders, but he is going to respond: ‘That’s your problem.’” He argued: “The Biden administration has insulted and humiliated its own Arab allies, all of which have been begging him to use leverage with the Israeli prime minister.”
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS TRUMP UNITED STATES GLOBAL ORDER POPULISM
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