Will government support, a consumer rebound and ongoing property support help revive China’s economic malaise as the country is loosening its COVID restrictions? This economist expects the Chinese economy to grow more than 5% in 2023.
After China’s most economically and politically turbulent year in more than three decades, investors are keen to see how 2023 will unfold for the world’s second largest economy.
Officials have said publicly that they now deem the virus weak enough to weather a surge of infections as rapidly as possible — with the hope of then reviving the country’s economic doldrums. Consumption rebound For much of the pandemic, unlike many developed countries, China refrained from large-scale stimulus measures, mostly rolling out supply-side support such as boosting infrastructure projects. This neglect of stimulating domestic consumption was compounded by citizens’ reluctance to spend amid times of uncertainty.
Property China’s beleaguered property sector — which last year was on the verge of collapse — has been receiving steadily rising government support. Xi last month said that a raft of new measures would be forthcoming, including requiring lenders to up their loans to developers as well as support for bond issuances by private real-estate firms.
Trivium analysts concurred. “We expect more policies in the new year to restore demand for new housing and to boost construction,” they wrote.
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